Import rise seen to taper off
2010-07-28
PHILIPPINE IMPORTS grew at a slower pace of 31.4% in May from a year ago, signaling the sector’s hefty gains seen early in the year may have plateaued.
The total value of the country’s imports amounted to $4.75 billion that month, higher than the $3.6 billion recorded in the same period a year ago, according to data released yesterday by the National Statistics Office (NSO).
In April, imports grew 48.2% to $4.53 billion.
On a monthly basis, growth in inbound shipments was a firmer 4.9% from April’s 0.2% slump.
Imports grew 35.3%, year on year, to $22.019 billion in the five months to May.
The sector’s gains were mainly tempered by a marked easing in electronic import revenues, which both the Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines, Inc. (SEIPI) and the Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc. (Philexport) traced to inventories reaching a plateau.
Inbound shipment of electronic products, which comprised about a third of the total import bill, grew 17.7% on an annual basis to $1.5 billion, easing from April’s hefty 63.9% growth.
"We will not continue to grow as fast because we have come from a very low base. We do expect it (import growth) to taper off to more seasonal patterns," SEIPI Vice-Chairman Arthur J. Young, Jr. said in a phone interview.
Philexport President Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis, Jr. echoed the view, saying: "The [growth rate for] the coming months may be the same or it may gradually slow."
Still, imports will continue to track exports, allowing the electronics industry in particular to meet its full-year growth target of 25%-30%, said SEIPI President Ernesto B. Santiago.
In May, exports grew by 37.3%, prompting state economic managers last July 9 to raise the 2010 growth target to 15% from 12%. Imports are expected to grow by 20%, up from a previous 18% forecast.
"We are on track," Mr. Santiago said by phone.
The latest import tally brought the country’s trade deficit to $2.85 billion in the five months ending May, wider than year-ago’s $2.5 billion.
The interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee has projected a trade gap of $12.6 billion this year, the widest since 2000.
Cid L. Terosa, an economist at the University of Asia and the Pacific, said in a phone interview that imports will remain hostage to factory output, which in May also recorded a slowdown. "Imports are dependent on the economic activity of manufacturers, which is not growing as fast as expected," Mr. Terosa said.
The so-called low base effects from a protracted slump that began in 2008 also explained the slowdown in the sector’s growth, said Arsenio M. Balisacan, an economist at the University of the Philippines. "This (the slowdown) is expected coming from a low base. The economy is recovering from a sharp slowdown," said Mr. Balisacan.
Revenues from importation of mineral fuels and lubricants, which accounted for more than a fifth of the total, rose by 103.8% year on year. Other key imports, namely: industrial machinery, plastics, transport and telecommunication equipment recorded growth in the high double digits.
Singapore was the country’s biggest source of merchandise imports in May with an 11.1% share at $529.4 million, followed by Japan with a 10.2% share at $483.72 million.
http://www.bworld.com.ph/main/content.php?id=14898
Author: KJQA
Source: BusinessWorld
Date Published : 2010-07-28
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